National Primary

5 February is Election Day. That is the earliest date either political party is allowing states to move up to through their own discretion. The few built-in exemptions to this rule include Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Last cycle's New hampshire Primary was 27 January, a full week after Iowa and a week before any other contest (South Carolina bunched in with several other states came on the next Tuesday). Now, Saturdays and Thursdays are being considered as election days in states, as the bunching up front gets into the half and quarter-week separations between states holding elections. "Super Tuesday" was 3 March last cycle, with about two dozen states, including New York, all voting on the same day. This year, it looks like it's going to be 5 February.

California just moved their primary up to 5 February, and about half the states in the Union are considering moving their primary or caucus up to this day. They all want as much influence as Iowa and new Hampshire, so their are drowning themselves in their own crowded first week.

We cannot blame them for wanting as much influence as Iowa and New Hampshire. But we can blame them for screwing up a system that already works. Front-loading decides nominees far to early, are unhealthy for the party, and unhealthy for the political campaigning process. A primary in California will mean just filled gymnasiums and TV ads. A primary in New Hampshire is a tried and true process, where visiting little town centers and making pitstops at corner stores are musts. An educated, interested, rural, and small population ensures that a candidate needs more than just money and has to do some legwork. NH voters evaluate candidates face-to-face, and they've been good at it since the process started to matter in the nomination process in the 1950s.

It's now up to Bill Gardener to save us. He is an amazing, strong but softspoken man who has many stories to tell of his time in office. He's been New Hampshire's Secretary of State since the 1970s, and he keeps getting re-elected by the legislature and kept by governors, no matter what party or political affiliation. And with good reason. He's still fairly young, since he took office in his 20s, and he has the sole authority to set the NH Primary date.

Our laws say that the NH Primary must be at least one week before any similar contest. Iowa has been grandfathered in (we don't mind them being in front, since they are a caucus, and what good is a caucus) and we've not tried to one-up them. But if too many elections are in front of us (even if they are caucuses, or cauci, or whatever), that threatens the FIRST IN THE NATION PRIMARY. Folks, NH does this primary thing pretty well. I'm hoping that Bill Gardener sets the Primary date for late December 2007. Of course, Wyoming is considering a law that would state that their primary is on the same day as New Hampshire's, whenever New Hampshire's is...which seems outlandish to me....

The thing is though, NH aside, having primaries spread out is a good thing. Otherwise, Parties rush to a nominee because people move like sheep and all vote for the candidate that's popular that week (see John Kerry, 2004). A drawn out primary process keeps the press interested, makes states able to make their individual decisions on their own primary day, and makes sure the correct nominee is chosen (see Howard Dean, 2004). Front loading kills all this, and that isn't good. Instead of declaring your candidacy a year early and campaigning for a long time for a week of 50 successive elections, candidates should declare in late summer and fall of the year before and be battling it out in the primaries for a couple months. That's the way the process should be.


In short, we're in trouble this year. Let's hope 5 February is a good day for a good candidate.

Thank you for reading.